Just Security

06/30/2025

Hungary offers the U.S. a grim preview of what happens to a country — politically, economically, and socially — when it falls under the spell of a populist with autocratic leanings. Americans who reflexively buy into the rhapsodizing about Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban would be wise to closely examine his record since 2010, when he assumed power for the second time.

No world leader has been embraced more enthusiastically by the American conservative movement and President Donald Trump than Orban. While feting him at Mar-A-Lago in 2024, Trump proclaimed “there’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orban.” At the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Budapest, Orban’s speech was preceded by a video message from Trump, who called Orban “a great man and a very special person.” The Heritage Foundation’s controversial Project 2025 clearly echoes elements of Orban’s authoritarian playbook. The Danube Institute, a think-tank linked to Orban’s Fidesz party, has a formal cooperation agreement with the Heritage Foundation, and the two conduct joint conferences annually.

Exodus of Hungary’s Best and Brightest

Do average Hungarians share the enthusiasm for Orban exhibited by Trump, CPAC, and the Heritage Foundation? In short, no. Here is one telling statistic: from 2010 to 2024, emigration from Hungary rose by 464 percent. In fact, the number of Hungarians leaving their country rose sharply almost immediately after Orban’s April 2010 election victory. For scores of Hungarians, the future looks bleak, with a recent survey finding that 34 percent of recent graduates and 55 percent of 18-40-year-old Hungarians plan to emigrate. In light of Hungary’s aging population – its median age is 43.9 years – Orban can ill-afford to drive out Hungary’s best, brightest, and youngest. That so many Hungarians are eager to flee Orban’s rule provides the first hint that enthusiasm among his U.S-based cheerleaders is misplaced, even suspect.

A Stagnant Economy, Corruption, and Cronyism

Swings from democracy to autocracy typically are accompanied by high levels of corruption and cronyism. Orban’s increasingly autocratic governance style has delivered precisely the results one would expect. The earlier mentioned Bertelsmann index reported that “corruption has become a systemic issue. Members of the Fidesz elite have rapidly accumulated wealth through informal political-business networks.” Hungary now ranks as the single most corrupt country in the EU, according to Transparency International, with State resources routinely diverted to Orban’s allies and family. While Hungary’s government had committed to reducing the percentage of single-bid tenders, a favored tool for rewarding Orban’s cronies, it missed the EU’s 2023 target of 24 percent and is unlikely to meet the 2026 target of 15 percent.

An Enfeebled Media and Grave Damage to the Rule of Law

Corruption, especially at the highest levels, has been abetted by Orban’s kneecapping of Hungary’s once free press. After Orban’s 2010 return to office, Hungary’s overall press environment deteriorated precipitously in the World Press Freedom Index, with its ranking dropping 45 places in just three years. This decline, which persists today, was no accident. Rather, it was engineered through legislative, political, and economic pressures imposed by the Orban government.

Where Orban has done his most lasting and pernicious damage is to Hungary’s once robust rule of law. Orban has worked assiduously (and illegally) to stack the judiciary with toadies, something reflected in Hungary’s declining scores in the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index. Regionally, Hungary ranks 31st out of 31 countries. Among the world’s high-income countries, today Hungary ranks 45th out of 47. Orban has steadily dismantled one guardrail after another, often in plain view. In 2013, Orban’s parliament amended the Constitution to limit the ability of the Constitutional Court to challenge new laws. This change strips the Constitutional Court of the power to void laws passed by a two-thirds majority, effectively insulating Orban’s actions from judicial review.