Leadership Matters

12/29/2025

With the release of each new poll the support for Trump’s policies and actions continues to decline. As 2026 comes into focus, on November 3, 2026, if elections are not postponed or cancelled, 35 U.S. Senate seats will be decided (currently 22 seats are GOP-held, 13 are Democratic-held), all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs, and 36 States will elect or re-elect Governors.

When you are elected to Congress, you tend to want to stay there. Since 1948, approximately 91% of Congressional incumbents run for re-election.

In midterm cycles there is a tendency to favor a Congressional shift away from the party in control of the Executive Branch. Members of Congress also know that when a President is deeply unpopular, the shift away from their party is more pronounced. For example, in the 2006 midterm cycle the United States was mired in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and early warning signals were starting to flash on the economy. Then President George W. Bush had a 37% approval rating. Both the House and Senate shifted to Democratic Party control.

Pre-2006 the Senate was 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent who caucused with Democrats. The House had 233 Republicans, 201 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

Post-2006 the Senate was 49-49 with two Independents -both of who caucused with the Democrats, giving the Dems control of the Senate. Democrats gained House control with 233 seats, Republicans controlled 202.

As we begin 2026, Republican Members of Congress (MoC’s), State, and local officials will logically approach the impending elections with growing concern about the widespread corruption, criminality, cruelty, and incompetence of the Trump Administration.

As Trump and his Cabinet ignore court orders, defy the Constitution (with the support of the Roberts Court), betray our allies, implement the deeply unpopular Project 2025, and govern without constraint, coupled with the continuing release of an undeniable trove of evidence that Trump was deeply involved with Epstein and Maxwell in the abuse of children, how long will Republican Party Members remain silent or worse, obstructive? When Trump had a solid base of Trump/MAGA support, i.e. “I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue”-style unwavering support, it was politically expedient to tap into Trump/MAGA base to be elected or reelected. As Trump and the GOP cause millions of Americans to lose access to what was barely affordable healthcare under the Affordable Care Act, will this be the red line that exposes MAGA for just the rebranded con it represents?

MAGA is just a rebrand of the long running con game run by the wealthiest Americans (and non-Americans) through the Republican Party. The so-called Silent Majority, the Reagan Revolution, the Moral Majority, the Tea Party, and now MAGA all share the same basic tenets.