The Next Move

04/10/2026

The juncture Hungary is approaching this weekend is the same one Americans will find themselves at in seven months. If current polls are to be believed, then Orbán’s opponent, Péter Magyar, will pull off a fairly convincing win.

The question is: What does the wannabe-dictator do next?

Orbán has been able to consolidate power more or less bloodlessly because he has not faced a serious challenger in the 16 years since he returned to office. There was no need to dispute election results or violently suppress the opposition because even in a perfectly fair system, they probably would not have won anyway.

That is, until now.

Orbán is set up to declare victory no matter what. The false-flag operation kicked off with the recent discovery of “explosives” on the Hungary-Serbia border.

(A “terrorist plot”! Come on. We’ve seen that movie a thousand times before. I need an aspiring dictator who engineers something more original. How about claiming an extraterrestrial invasion? Enemies controlling the weather?)

The last time Donald Trump lost an election, he pressured state officials and incited an insurrection to try to overturn the results. Yet even then, there were a handful of people surrounding the president—people like Mike Pence—who did their duty (the bare minimum) and ensured that the democratic process was carried out.

There are no such people in the second Trump term. If the Democrats win the midterms and Trump rejects the outcome, who in the administration is going to stand in his way?

The corridors of power in Budapest are likewise crowded full of sycophants. Who in the prime minister’s Fidesz party is going to tell Orbán that he has lost?