The Guardian

10/13/2025

The Sanders-endorsed, anti-establishment El-Sayed, 40, follows a similar blueprint as Mamdani, and Michigan in some ways offers favorable terrain for the leftwing populist playbook. But at the same time a repeat of Mamdani’s success in the more conservative, upper midwest swing state is far from certain, and the race is viewed as a possible bellwether on leftists’ electability in statewide campaigns across the US.

“This is a time when that call for new politics is resonating beyond the places one would expect it to resonate, like in the far reaches of Michigan’s rural communities,” said Yousef Rabhi, a former Michigan House Democratic floor leader who has endorsed El-Sayed. “Abdul and Mamdani are speaking to this moment.”

Like Mamdani, El-Sayed eschews partisanship in favor of leftwing populist economic ideas, sharply criticizes Israel, and leans heavily on a sense of authenticity. In New York City, that formula resonated with younger people, activated disaffected voters and attracted support for Mamdani from across the political spectrum. Mamdani remains strongly ahead in the New York mayoral race

Using that style in Michigan is a break from the moderate Democratic politics that for decades have dominated in the state, and which defeated El-Sayed in 2018 when he lost to now governor Gretchen Whitmer in a gubernatorial Democratic primary.

But there are some crucial differences between El-Sayed’s and Mamdani’s races.

El-Sayed’s opponents are not damaged like Mamdani’s main competitors, mayor Eric Adams and former New York governor Andrew Cuomo. In the August 2026 primary election, El-Sayed faces US congresswoman Haley Stevens, and state senator Mallory McMorrow. The latter is similarly young and critical of party leadership, and has styled herself as an outsider. But McMorrow largely shares the establishment’s economic policy positions and brought on political insiders, like controversial former Cuomo consultant Lis Smith.

Educated, middle-class voters who wanted to vote for an outsider were key to Mamdani’s win. El-Sayed also needs those votes, but they may be split among him and McMorrow, even if the two candidates have substantially different policies and El-Sayed is more truly an outsider, said Josh Cohen, a progressive political analyst who writes the Ettingermentum newsletter.